I commented a couple of months ago that I thought an Obama v. Huckabee general election would be good for the country. I see the potential for some substantive debate on issues that often get ignored and I think both men would keep the campaign on a high plane, even if their supporters didn't (I'm sure we'd see partisans on both sides using Obama's race/name and Huckabee's background as a Baptist minister to sow fear). In any case, that scenario is somewhat more likely after last night. But I liken the Iowa caucuses to a college basketball team's non-conference schedule. My Gators went 13-2 in non-conference play, which looks impressive, but isn't a good barometer of how good they might be since they haven't played many good teams yet. That will come when they start playing their SEC rivals next week. Huckabee and Obama look really good after last night, but we'll know a lot more in a month.
I still plan to vote for Huck on Jan. 29, but I like McCain more and more as a possible alternative. Huckabee's comments after the Bhutto assassination didn't exactly inspire confidence in his foreign policy acumen. Maybe those two will get together eventually? McCain and Huckabee that is. Senator McCain had some nice things to say about Governor Huckabee on NPR this morning, but that probably has more to do with "the enemy of my enemy (Romney) is my friend" (at least for now). And that Pat Robertson endorsement doesn't seem to be doing Rudy a whole lot of good so far.
This is going to be an interesting election!
UPDATE: Since writing this I came across David Brooks' analysis. As usual, he hits a home run.
On Obama:
Barack Obama has won the Iowa caucuses. You’d have to have a heart of stone not to feel moved by this. An African-American man wins a closely fought campaign in a pivotal state. He beats two strong opponents, including the mighty Clinton machine. He does it in a system that favors rural voters. He does it by getting young voters to come out to the caucuses.
This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance.
Iowa won’t settle the race, but the rest of the primary season is going to be colored by the glow of this result. Whatever their political affiliations, Americans are going to feel good about the Obama victory, which is a story of youth, possibility and unity through diversity — the primordial themes of the American experience.
On Huckabee:
On the Republican side, my message is: Be not afraid. Some people are going to tell you that Mike Huckabee’s victory last night in Iowa represents a triumph for the creationist crusaders. Wrong.
Huckabee won because he tapped into realities that other Republicans have been slow to recognize. First, evangelicals have changed. Huckabee is the first ironic evangelical on the national stage. He’s funny, campy (see his Chuck Norris fixation) and he’s not at war with modern culture.
Second, Huckabee understands much better than Mitt Romney that we have a crisis of authority in this country. People have lost faith in their leaders’ ability to respond to problems. While Romney embodies the leadership class, Huckabee went after it. He criticized Wall Street and K Street. Most importantly, he sensed that conservatives do not believe their own movement is well led. He took on Rush Limbaugh, the Club for Growth and even President Bush. The old guard threw everything they had at him, and their diminished power is now exposed.
Third, Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived. Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact. A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing. Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.
In that sense, Huckabee’s victory is not a step into the past. It opens up the way for a new coalition.
There's more, but those are the highlights.
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