The new normal

Peggy Noonan ends her July 11 column this way:

Here are a few examples of what we may face in the next 10 years: a profound and prolonged American crash, with the admission of bankruptcy and the spread of deep social unrest; one or more American cities getting hit with weapons of mass destruction from an unknown source; faint glimmers of actual secessionist movements as Americans for various reasons and in various areas decide the burdens and assumptions of the federal government are no longer attractive or legitimate. . . . It's not a time to be frivolous, or to feel the temptation of resentment, or the temptation of thinking next year will be more or less like last year, and the assumptions of our childhoods will more or less reign in our future. It won't be that way. [emphasis mine]

I think she's right. History is cyclical and I think we're living in a transitional time between the end of a cycle of widespread prosperity and the beginning of something else. I don't know exactly what that "something else" will look like, but it's probably going to feel to the average American consumer a lot like being splashed in the face with cold water over and over again. It's already started for a lot of folks. I've been thinking about this a lot as I contemplate the dwindling economic fortunes of my own little family.

My wife and I are trying hard to avoid the common scenario of two parents working/kid in daycare, and the other common scenario of families who subsidize a drop in income by incurring debt, especially bad debt (credit cards). So far, by God's grace, we've managed. In the process we've been forced to dramatically reassess our economic/lifestyle expectations in light of things like a dramatic rise in our health insurance costs (now our second highest monthly expense) on top of all the additional expenses that come with having a child. Time will tell whether we'll be able to avoid the above scenarios, and how much we're willing to change our expectations of what's "normal". Do we really need that second car with the additional hundreds of dollars in monthly expense? Do we really need those extra services that quickly add up at the rate of $20, $30, $40 a month?

What we're going through will eventually work its way up the economic food chain. Haven't felt the pain yet? Give it time. You will. I think a lot of Americans assume we'll spend (Democrats) or grow (Republicans) our way out of this recession and everything will go back to the way it once was. As Noonan says, "like last year". Or last decade, or last fifty years. For that to happen would be like a juggler able to keep an ever increasing number of balls in the air indefinitely. Ain't gonna happen.

In closing, some perspective. First, what we consider a recession, or even a bona fide depression, would be economic party time for vast swathes of this planet. Did you have clean, plentiful water this morning? If so, rejoice. Second, Christians have nothing to fear for our Lord tells us: "Fear not, little flock, for it is your Father's good pleasure to give you the kingdom" and "Do not be anxious, saying, ‘What shall we eat?’ or ‘What shall we drink?’ or ‘What shall we wear?’ For the Gentiles seek after all these things, and your heavenly Father knows that you need them all. But seek first the kingdom of God and his righteousness, and all these things will be added to you." Funny thing about God though, his definition of the things we need is usually not the same as our's.

This could get painful...